The FIFA World Cup continues to produce unexpected results, and crypto prediction markets are reflecting every surprise. England’s goalless draw against Ghana not only changed the Group L standings but also erased an estimated $1.8 million from one trader’s account.
The result adds to a growing list of costly prediction market losses, where several high-profile bettors have seen millions disappear after backing heavy favorites or betting against unlikely outcomes.
England Draw Costs Trader $1.8 Million
Blockchain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence reported on X that a trader identified as “weatherman12” placed an estimated $1.8 million wager on England to defeat Ghana in their Group L fixture. The position ranked among the largest publicly tracked bets on the match.
England entered the game as the favorite after opening its World Cup campaign with a victory over Croatia. A second win would have secured qualification for the knockout stage. Instead, Thomas Tuchel’s squad struggled to create clear scoring chances against Ghana’s disciplined defensive setup.
Despite late attacking pressure, England failed to score, and the match finished 0-0. As a result, the trader lost the entire position.
Multi-Million Losses Continue
The same day brought another significant setback for prediction market trader “Supersob,” who recorded estimated losses of about $5.8 million within 24 hours.
A large share of those losses came from betting against a Norway victory. The trader held “No” positions worth more than $2.6 million on Norway winning the match. Norway eventually secured a 3-2 victory, leading to an estimated loss of approximately $2.7 million. Another sizeable position against Iran also added to the overall decline.
According to Arkham Intelligence, “Supersob” now ranks as the third-largest all-time loser on Polymarket. Since June 2026, the account has posted a 25% win rate across 5,230 trades with total trading volume reaching $16.7 million.
Spain Match Created Both Winners and Losers
Another widely discussed prediction market result came when Spain was unexpectedly held to a 0-0 draw by Cabo Verde.
Before kickoff, prediction markets gave Spain roughly a 92% chance of winning, while contracts backing a draw traded at around 6.6 cents. One trader committed approximately $999,068 on a Spanish victory. After Spain failed to break through Cabo Verde’s defense in Atlanta, the entire position was wiped out.
The same match also produced one of the tournament’s biggest profits. Arkham Intelligence reported that trader “fishalive” turned an initial position of about $400,000 against a Spain win into nearly $4 million in gains. A successful handicap position added later pushed total profits from the match to approximately $4.7 million.
Recent World Cup results highlighted how quickly prediction markets can shift. England’s draw with Ghana, Norway’s victory, and Spain’s unexpected stalemate with Cabo Verde triggered major changes in market odds.
As betting activity continues across crypto prediction platforms, the tournament shows that even strong favorites can produce surprising outcomes.